Crime JSNA

This section will focus on core epidemiological issues that take account of fixed risk factors (such as age, gender, ethnicity, family history) and modifiable risk factors (such as behaviour). The wider determinants of health (such as housing, transport and environment) are also considered.

Age

Young adults aged 16–24 remain the most at risk of violent crime. According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), this group consistently reports the highest victimisation rates, particularly for assault and theft.

• In the year ending December 2024, theft increased by 13%, with a 50% rise in theft from the person (e.g., pickpocketing), disproportionately affecting younger people in urban areas 
• Older adults (65+) remain at low risk for most crimes but are increasingly targeted by fraud and scams, especially online1.

Gender

• Men are more likely to be victims of stranger violence, often in public spaces and linked to nightlife.
• Women are more likely to experience domestic abuse and sexual violence. In the year ending March 2024, an estimated 2.3 million adults experienced domestic abuse (1.6 million women and 712,000 men), with little change from the previous year1 

Socioeconomic status

People in deprived areas or with low income face significantly higher risks of crime. This includes both violent crime and property crime.

• The ONS notes that households in the lowest income quintile are more than twice as likely to experience burglary or violence compared to those in the highest quintile.
• These patterns have remained consistent over the past five years, with only minor fluctuations2.

Qualifications

Lower educational attainment is associated with higher crime exposure. Individuals with no formal qualifications are more likely to live in high-crime areas and have limited access to protective resources.

• This is often intertwined with socioeconomic status, making it a compounding risk factor.
• Trends have remained stable, with no significant year-on-year change reported1.

Mental health

People with mental health conditions are at increased risk of victimisation, particularly sexual and violent offences.

• The CSEW has consistently shown that individuals with long-term mental health issues are more likely to report being victims of crime.
• This group also faces barriers to reporting and accessing justice, which has not improved significantly in recent years1.

Ethnicity

• Black and Mixed ethnicity individuals report higher rates of victimisation, especially in urban areas.
• The ONS and Home Office data suggest that these disparities are influenced by socioeconomic inequalities, discrimination, and policing practices.
• Hate crime data from the Home Office shows a steady increase in racially motivated offences, with over 109,000 hate crimes recorded in the year ending March 2024, a 6% rise from the previous year3.

Prisoners

Former prisoners are at high risk of re-victimisation and targeted violence, especially shortly after release.

• They often face homelessness, unemployment, and social exclusion, which increase vulnerability.
• While specific year-on-year data is limited, qualitative studies consistently highlight this group’s elevated risk4.

Sexual Orientation

• LGBTQ+ individuals, particularly gay and bisexual men and transgender people are disproportionately affected by hate crimes.
• In the year ending March 2024, sexual orientation hate crimes rose by 11%, and transgender identity hate crimes rose by 15%, continuing a multi-year upward trend3.

Vulnerable Children

• Children in care, those with disabilities, or those exposed to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are at significantly higher risk of victimisation.
• The Children’s Commissioner for England and NSPCC report that these children are more likely to be exploited, go missing, or be involved in youth violence.
• There has been a notable increase in child criminal exploitation cases, particularly linked to county lines drug trafficking5,6.