Data and Intelligence
The following information is a summary of key findings from this information when viewed in 2025. The Institute of Public Care (IPC) at Oxford Brookes University's Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information System produces figures that are a prediction of future rates.
Projected numbers of people with an autistic spectrum disorder aged 18 to 64 are expected to show a gradual overall increase between 2025 and 2045, rising from 539 individuals in 2025 to 566 by 2045.
- For young adults aged 18–24, numbers are projected to increase slightly from 74 in 2025 to a peak of 79 in 2030, before gradually declining to 67 by 2045.
- Among those aged 25–34, projections remain relatively stable over time. Numbers increase from 115 in 2025 to 122 by 2035, peak at 127 in 2040, and then reduce slightly to 124 in 2045.
- The 35–44 age group shows a consistent upward trend. Predicted numbers rise steadily from 112 in 2025 to 128 by 2045, indicating growth in this cohort across the period.
- For adults aged 45–54, projections fluctuate initially but increase overall. Numbers dip slightly from 106 in 2025 to 105 in 2030, then rise to 125 by 2045.
- In contrast, the 55–64 age group begins with the highest number in 2025 at 133, declines to 109 by 2035, remains stable in 2040, and then increases again to 121 in 2045.
Overall, while individual age groups show different patterns of change, the total population aged 18–64 with autistic spectrum disorder is projected to increase steadily over the 20‑year period, driven mainly by growth in the 35–54 age ranges.
The Institute of Public Care also produce the Projecting Older People Population Information System.
Projected numbers of people aged 65 and over with an autistic spectrum disorder are expected to increase substantially between 2025 and 2035, before stabilising through to 2045. Overall, the total population aged 65 and over is predicted to rise from 187 individuals in 2025 to 232 by 2040, remaining at that level in 2045.
- For adults aged 65–74, numbers are projected to increase from 106 in 2025 to a peak of 125 in 2035. After this point, the population in this age group is expected to decline, reducing to 115 in 2040 and 105 by 2045.
- In contrast, the 75 and over age group shows a consistent and sustained increase throughout the period. Numbers rise steadily from 81 in 2025 to 104 in 2035, continuing to grow to 117 in 2040 and reaching 127 by 2045.
Overall, growth in the older autistic population is increasingly driven by the 75+ age group, indicating a shifting age profile and an ageing autistic population. This trend has implications for health, social care, and age‑appropriate autism support services over the longer term.
The total predicted number of people in Hartlepool in 2025 with autistic spectrum disorder (aged over 18 years) is 726. By 2023, this is predicted to rise to 750 and in 10 years (2035) rise to 777.