Which population groups are at risk and why?
This section will focus on core epidemiological issues that take account of fixed risk factors (such as age, gender, ethnicity, family history) and modifiable risk factors (such as behaviour). The wider determinants of health (such as housing, transport and environment) are also considered.
Age
Children aged 14–17 are statistically more likely to engage in offending behaviour. This age group is associated with increased independence, peer influence, and risk-taking.
Gender
Young males are significantly overrepresented in children who offend cohorts. In Hartlepool, the majority of children referred to the YJS are white males aged 14–17.
School exclusion and poor attendance
Children excluded from school or with low attendance are more likely to become involved in offending. In Hartlepool, many children open to the YJS are not in full-time education and have significantly below-average attainment.
Substance misuse
Early use of drugs or alcohol is linked to increased risk of offending. Hartlepool YJS has identified rising use of substances such as pregabalin among young people.
Family history
Children with family members who have offended, or who experience intergenerational trauma, are at an increased risk. A history of parental offending, substance misuse, or domestic violence can normalise criminal behaviour or reduce protective factors.
Ethnicity
While Hartlepool has a relatively low proportion of children from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds (approx. 4.9%), national data shows that children from some ethnic minority groups may be disproportionately represented in the youth justice system. Locally, disproportionality is monitored but not currently flagged as a major concern.
Mental health and emotional wellbeing
Poor mental health, including undiagnosed conditions, can contribute to impulsivity, aggression, and vulnerability to exploitation.
Housing instability
Children living in temporary, overcrowded, or unsafe housing are more likely to experience stress, disruption, and reduced access to support.
Poverty
Economic hardship is linked to increased risk of offending through reduced opportunities, social exclusion, and exposure to crime.
Vulnerable children
Looked After Children (LAC): Nationally, children in the care of the local authority are significantly more likely to be involved in offending. In Hartlepool, 15% of the YJS cohort are Children in Our Care (CIOC), despite CIOC making up only 4% of the local 10–17 population. Many of these children were already in care before entering the youth justice system.
Children with Special Educational Needs (SEN): A growing number of children open to the YJS have EHCPs or require SEN support. Unmet learning needs can manifest as behavioural issues, increasing the risk of exclusion and offending.
Children Missing from Home or Education: Those frequently missing are more vulnerable to exploitation and criminal involvement.
Children exposed to exploitation: Criminal and sexual exploitation, including involvement in county lines activity, is a significant risk factor.